Storm psychology: Why do some people stay behind?

Chris Graythen / Getty Images

LAPLACE, LA - AUGUST 29: Rescue workers transport residents trapped by rising water from Hurricane Isaac in the River Forest subdivision on August 29, 2012 in LaPlace, Louisiana. The large Level 1 hurricane slowly moved across southeast Louisiana, dumping huge amounts of rain and knocking out power to Louisianans in scattered parts of the state. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

It’s the question so many of us have while watching news coverage of a hurricane or tropical storm like Isaac: Who are these people who don’t leave home even as an angry storm is advancing – and what are they thinking?!

The short answer: For some, the up-and-leaving idea isn’t as easy as it sounds to those of us watching from a safe and dry distance. Actually, a 2009 article published in the journal Psychological Science sought to examine the reasons some people won’t evacuate, despite the urging or even mandates of city and state officials, by asking a group who would know: Hurricane Katrina survivors who weathered the storm at home.

“It seems like asking ‘Why didn't people leave?’ presumes that that's the best option for everyone to make,” says Hilary Bergsieker, who worked with Nicole Stephens, now of Northwestern University, on the study. The fact is, many people lack the resources to escape. Having no money, no mode of transportation and no friends or family in safe places means no choice but to weather the storm. 

In the case of Katrina, those who evacuated before the storm hit were mostly white, mostly middle class; on the other hand, those who stayed were mostly black, mostly working class. The “leavers,” as the Psychological Science paper terms those who fled before the storm, had privileges that they probably took for granted: more education, more money, reliable access to transportation, social networks that extended farther away from the hurricane-hit area, and more access to news reports to warn them of the storm’s severity.

"Middle- and upper-class Americans are more geographically mobile and have more experience traveling nationally and internationally. I think that the familiarity with moving or traveling would contribute to the ability to make a plan for how to evacuate,” says Stephens, who is an assistant professor at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern. "On the other hand, if you have spent most of your life in the same community, then you would likely feel more attachment to your home and feel less comfortable as well as less equipped to quickly uproot yourself in response to evacuation orders." 

Even if a person does have the resources at hand to make an escape, it might be unthinkable to leave behind a tightknit community like those you’d find in many parts of coastal Louisiana and Mississippi.

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A downgraded Isaac floods coastal communities and forces new evacuations, but levees still hold.

“There's sort of the physical resources factor, but there's also the psychological factors. That's your world; that's all you know,” says Bergsieker, who is now an assistant professor of psychology at the University of Waterloo in Ontario, Canada. And, as the thinking goes, if your neighbor tells you he’s staying, then you might stay, too – after all, if something happened to him, who would be there to take care of him if you leave? Some of the 79 Katrina survivors interviewed in the 2009 study did have the resources to go, but they didn’t have the heart to leave.

Ariella Cohen moved to New Orleans in 2007, so she wasn’t there when Katrina hit. But in 2008, when Hurricane Gustav started moving toward her city, she decided to stick it out, despite the city's mandatory evacuation order.

“I had friends who had stayed through Katrina, and I had heard all their stories about it, and so I think I also inherited all their jadedness, too,” says Cohen, who wrote about her Gustav close encounter for the website Next American City. “You know, just kind of that New Orleanian attitude of, ‘Whatever! We’re going to stay here. Do you want another beer?’” On a more serious note, her rationale for staying was: 'I’m young, I’m able-bodied and relatively fit. What if someone older and weaker needs me?' “I was, like, 27 at the time, so I was young and strong, and I would be able to help people if the time came,” says Choen, now 31, who lives in Philadelphia, where she works as an editor for the same site that published her 2008 essay.

Mistrust of outsiders – as in, people who aren’t from your community who are claiming to know more than you do about your own home by telling you to leave it – can play a part, too. “This is where you've always been your whole life, and suddenly people on the radio are telling you you have to leave? That may seem like a much more dangerous choice than to stay with people from your church, or people from your block,” Bergsieker says.

Besides, those who live in a hurricane-prone area hear these warnings all the time. It can be easy to stay in denial about an impending storm’s ferocity when the local news station has cried “hurricane” so many times before. (Sometimes that tack pans out: In Cohen’s lucky case, Gustav bypassed New Orleans.)

Read this far and still think anyone who’d ignore a hurricane evacuation mandate must be just plain crazy? That sounds about right. A second piece of the study asked both Katrina relief workers and regular folks to describe the “leavers” and the “stayers” in three words. The leavers were called independent, self-reliant, responsible, hard-working, conscientious. The stayers, on the other hand, were described mostly in negative terms: Passive. Crazy. Lazy. Irresponsible. Careless. Hopeless. 

Take a dive into the comments section on this NBCNews.com story on Isaac, and the sentiment sounds about the same. Like this one: "What part of MANDATORY EVACUATION do these people NOT UNDERSTAND!" (Bold text and gratuitous use of the caps-lock key are the commenter's own.) Or this: "You were told to evacuate! Now you should be on your own and not expect others to put themselves in harms way!"

In the study, relief workers and others alike acknowledged that many of the stayers might have lacked the financial resources to leave, and yet they still used mostly negative terms to describe them. That disconnect is what Stephens was interested in exploring in the 2009 article, which argues that maybe people who “choose” to dig in their heels and remain in their communities, even when a storm’s a-comin’, actually don’t feel like they ever had a choice. Whether for financial or psychological motives, they're staying. 

 “In retrospect, definitely I was a bit naïve. Natural disasters don’t go by the logic of human psychology,” Cohen acknowledges. “I think that there’s a lot of it that’s hard to conceive – like, it’s hard to conceive of your own death, it’s difficult to conceive of natural disaster. It just seemed unbelievable that another storm could hit the city hard. And so I stayed.”

Keep up with NBCNews.com health editor Melissa Dahl on Twitter.

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It's not like you really have to go far at all, and not everyone has to go. If you drive, 50 to 75 miles away from the coastline, you would be fine just sitting in your car, you don't need a hotel room. Not the most comfortable way to go, but easily doable. after it's done, just drive back. You may have to camp out one to two days. I don't know about New Orleans, but in Houston, if you are disabled, poor or for some reason or other would have trouble you register with the city and they come and get you. Of course you have to put some thought into it ahead of time to do that, which is what these people don't do.

I live in Houston. I would never consider moving close enough to the coast to be in an evacuation area. If I was poor or handicapped or something even more so.

  • 2 votes
Reply#55 - Thu Aug 30, 2012 3:48 PM EDT

Melba, you sit in your car for 2-3 weeks and tell me its no big deal, thats the lenght of time it took before they allowed people back into their homes where I live and less than 10% of the population was actually effected and they issued a mandatory evacution for my area.

If you were poor or handicapped your housing options are more limited and you may have to live someplace that you don't want to live.

    #55.1 - Thu Aug 30, 2012 3:59 PM EDT

    Melba, I too live in Houston. I did register with 211, the State and City Register. It is a joke. I hope know one every has to call and depend on it because they are not coming. Plus the group from the nursing home that they "rescued" and drove up to Dallas. It never made it, it went up in flames. People who do not have money do not have choices.

      #55.2 - Thu Aug 30, 2012 4:37 PM EDT
      Reply

      Speaking from experience there are plenty of Americans, regardless of race, that do not have the financial means to evacuate. Most of the working class are living paycheck to paycheck in this economy and are forced to make a decision to stay and protect what we DO have or risk "running" and becoming further behind due to the price increase in everything from gas to food to lodging.

      • 2 votes
      Reply#56 - Thu Aug 30, 2012 3:51 PM EDT

      reasons not to leave:

      1) No trasnportaion to Emergency shelter

      2) Lack of faith/belief in all the news people and officials calling for evacuation when every time it rains, snows, or some other similar event a state of emergeny is called or they're claiming that its oh so dangerous and terrible when well over 99% of the time its nothing at all.

      3) Our experience of staying and everything being fine.

      4) Staying allows me to mitigate and manage any possible dmg, I can secure my belongings and move them.

      5) I don't like people to begin with why would I want to eat, sleep, live with 100's or more of them in some cramped public space with no personal privacy?

      6) Most of us are somewhat self reliant and to haveing to wait, ask for handouts from strangers is not normal behaviour

      • 1 vote
      Reply#57 - Thu Aug 30, 2012 3:54 PM EDT

      Why are parents of little children putting their lives in danger too? What a shame, the kids have no choice because the parents are stupid !!!!

      • 2 votes
      Reply#58 - Thu Aug 30, 2012 3:55 PM EDT

      What a great article !!!!!

      I'm one of those that blamed those who stayed. I'm happy to have read this to realize their reasons and lack of resources for weathering the storm.

      • 1 vote
      Reply#59 - Thu Aug 30, 2012 3:58 PM EDT

      One could go a step further, and suggest doing a bit of homework and researching an area before moving to it to take up residence in the first place; if there is any chance that a hurricane would cause me to evacuate my home at any time in the next 20 years, I am not going to buy a home in that area. The same goes for Tsunamis, floods, mudslides, tornadoes and forest fires. It's up to people to take self-responsibility. (Of course, if you have to move to an area because that's the only place you can find work, then that's another thing. In that case, I would look for the safest place within that area.)

      • 1 vote
      Reply#60 - Thu Aug 30, 2012 3:58 PM EDT

      You're going to wind up in the place you can afford. Period.

      • 1 vote
      #60.1 - Thu Aug 30, 2012 4:24 PM EDT
      Reply

      One of the reasons they stay behind is because they cannot bare to leave important family members, their pets. When will we learn that the shelters MUST allow animals.

      • 1 vote
      Reply#61 - Thu Aug 30, 2012 3:59 PM EDT

      As an intuitive who predicts Earth changes (yes, I did predict a hurricane/flooding in the Gulf Coast this yr. and it's published), I get it why people don't want to evacuate. It's loss of control and fear u will lose your life as u know it. I did choose to evacuate the Angora Fire at South Lake Tahoe...because as a journalist I covered the Oakland Firestorm and I get the danger -- worst-case scenario. I can tell u that evacuating has its own mixed bag of woes but also peace of mind is priceless. If you're ordered to go--please go.

      • 2 votes
      Reply#62 - Thu Aug 30, 2012 4:01 PM EDT

      Many stay to protect their homes. I have been through a few hurricanes and when your roof starts leaking you want to be there to control the water entering into your home. But then again im not in a flood zone.

      • 1 vote
      Reply#63 - Thu Aug 30, 2012 4:04 PM EDT

      "protect their homes"?? whether you are there or not a flood will destroy your home, all you're doing by staying is putting your life in danger. How does climbing to your attic or roof protect the home?

      • 2 votes
      #63.1 - Thu Aug 30, 2012 4:24 PM EDT

      I live 400 yards from the beach and in 100+ years it has never flooded. During hurricane Charlie if I had not been home we would have had much more damage to the inside of our home. You can't just move the entire contents of your home when you have a warning. Now if its a catagory 5 then its time to go.

        #63.2 - Thu Aug 30, 2012 6:27 PM EDT
        Reply

        Dear Friends:

        I am so glad that this article came out at this time. The present Administration did a good job trying to warn the people. Their decisions to stay behind are so complex and sometimes so simple. It can also be decided or influenced by a mate that is taking a stand. Some even due to a military mindset, it does not happen all the time. Fear of being closed in to a shelter, rape, social differences, fear of disease, or not being seen. Unfamiliar territory so to speak.

        May I remind you all that during the George W Bush Jr. Administration when he warned the public of the impeding hurricanes, just as with Barrack Obama that there were those that did not take action. Even when they were told of a rating 4 or 5. In this case the damage and flood threats of hurricane Isaac are similar to a four. The slow moving along the coast was similar to what occurred in the regions of Venezuela before it headed out toward the Gulf and USA. Neither Administration Presidents failed the public. The public decided not to move and those from outside the regions that were visitors, not familiar with hurricanes also react with anguish and uncertainty. They need to blame someone and feel they should be accountable. What do I do? Why was it not sooner? The reason the response of so many!

        May the next hurricane response be better by the public. Get it down to a split second response! Oh and may I say that the ignorant response of Romney, Ryan and the Republicans during this convention show just what we can expect in the event they were placed in office. OH my God! Yes! Their egos came before the public and employees of the region. Thank you President Obama and Vice President Biden for being there for us and using better judgement.

        Amen.

          Reply#64 - Thu Aug 30, 2012 4:04 PM EDT

          I live in Mobile,AL,where FEMA leased a cruise ship to house Katrina 'victims'. The ship was trashed-carpets set on fire,window treatments ripped down/destroyed.A friend owns a plumbing company that finally stationed a plumber full-time on the ship after endless service calls for blocked sewer pipes,the result of shoes/beer cans/towels,ect flushed down the commodes.After private rent-a-guards could not keep civil order,the city had to station uniformed officers on the ship. Constant arrests of 'victims' for narcotics/assault/theft/public drunkeness,which increased four-fold at first of month on Check Day. Three hot meals per day served onboard to the 'victims',even though many were food stamp/WIC recipients.

          The racial overtones of the 'study' was intellectually dishonest. 'Only white people are educated and have money.'Perhaps someone should relay this nugget of wisdom to Dr.Condi Rice and Herman Cain.

          • 2 votes
          Reply#65 - Thu Aug 30, 2012 4:06 PM EDT

          a public shelter. great. like sleeping in a public toilet. waldo canyon. we had to evacuate to utah. family of four, 9 days, $1300. still haven't recouped. article should be titled 'the reality of leaving'. and back to public facilities. if you live in a metro environment, there may be something doable. if you live in a county whose entire population is 10,000, we are talking fair grounds.

          • 1 vote
          Reply#66 - Thu Aug 30, 2012 4:11 PM EDT

          I would hope one would consider being in a shelter (especially if you have kids) over the debate of "public facilities", heck, some people even go on camping trips with tents..... for pleasure, You have to make the best out of a bad situation when your back is against a wall!

            #66.1 - Thu Aug 30, 2012 4:20 PM EDT
            Reply

            most of pictures shown of the people being rescued, have animal(s), so they must have some "transportation" to buy food for them, unless they aren't feeding them. So, I find it hard to believe they couldn't have drove to a safer place.

            • 1 vote
            Reply#67 - Thu Aug 30, 2012 4:17 PM EDT

            The reason people stay isn't necessarily economic, educational, or social status. It appears as though NBC is siting "race" as a reason for the ignorance of remaining in harms way. It isn't that, nor is it because they can't leave as alluded to in the article. The reason for "staying put" is largely psychological or emotional in nature. For example, when one half of a life long partnership passes, many times the survivor will remain in a home simply because they feel as though they are abandoning their own lives. False bravado expressed in stubborn attitudes is another reason, plain and simple. We went through the all the scenarios before of how "Katrina" exposed the underbelly of America's disregard for the black community living in poverty in New Orleans. Race does not preclude logical choices. There are many reasons why someone would choose to remain in harms way, and it is without question their own, not a failing of a government system. Better call out all the sociologists on this one. I don't agree with the content of NBC's take on this situation too much.

            • 1 vote
            Reply#68 - Thu Aug 30, 2012 4:18 PM EDT

            The reason is different for different people. There is no one size fits all solution.

              #68.1 - Thu Aug 30, 2012 4:34 PM EDT
              Reply

              My parents do stay for most hurricanes. They do stay for tropical storms and maybe a category 1... They are intelligent people of financial means. They aren't afraid to travel. But they stay because if they leave, they can only come back home when the officals give them permission to. Meanwhile everyone that stayed is helping themselves to everything they own. They will take everything including your windows, doors, air conditoning units, furniture, tools, farm equipment etc etc etc...No law inforcement in sight as it is a very rural area.

              • 1 vote
              Reply#69 - Thu Aug 30, 2012 4:19 PM EDT

              they stay behind because they are STUPID. if they have to be rescued they should be billed for it. their stupidity puts the lives of emergency personnel at risk. if a rescuer dies the idiot they are trying to rescue should be charged with murder.

                Reply#70 - Thu Aug 30, 2012 4:21 PM EDT

                My parents would never expect to be "rescued"...the officials in that area are too stupid to conduct such a thing....the national guard is no where near....after Katrina no one in this community ever saw hide nor hair of any kind of govenment official of any kind...there was no FEMA....there was no one to help....there were no volunteers...these people just banned together to protect themselves and their community...they helped one another....they were no where near any kind of media for any kind of interviews...they never screamed or cried out on national televison...they took care of each other....they were also prepared for disasters since they have experienced them their entire lives...they all have money, necessary equiptment, food and water supply or anything else they may need to sustain themselves for whatever length of time it will be necessary....they feel that if they stay and get into any kind of trouble there will be no one to call...they just accept their destiny....

                • 1 vote
                #70.1 - Thu Aug 30, 2012 4:36 PM EDT

                @Boomer-Why don't the poor just go and die. Life would be so much better for you wouldn't it. Hope it happens to you.

                • 1 vote
                #70.2 - Thu Aug 30, 2012 4:38 PM EDT
                Reply

                Abandonment is cruel. Higher Authorities should be accountable for relocating such citizens that want to leave. Millions spent to rescue another country, how about the U. S. citizens?

                • 2 votes
                Reply#71 - Thu Aug 30, 2012 4:22 PM EDT

                I know my folks think a level 1 hurricane is just a bad storm. I think they should find a new rating system. Also, the reason some of my folks stay is to protect the place from looters. And the pets are an inflence. . . they aren't leaving them. And if you have a hard-headed old-timer, they WON'T go! You can't leave them there! Sometimes you evacuate and it takes a turn and you have spent your rent money to leave for nothing. Next time around, you just procrastinate until it is too late.

                • 3 votes
                Reply#72 - Thu Aug 30, 2012 4:27 PM EDT

                I think of a level 1 hurricane as a bad storm.

                • 1 vote
                #72.1 - Thu Aug 30, 2012 4:33 PM EDT

                A Cat 1 is not a "bad storm" LOL. Clearly you are not an inhabitant of the Gulf Coast. The prevailing attitude is, yeah, something might happen if you sit it out just like you could die on the freeway or get killed in a public shelter (both of which are more likely than you dying in the storm), but in terms of bad storms, anything below a Cat 3 is just a little wind and some rain and for the most part you simply hunker down and deal with it. Life comes with challenges regardless of where you live, and if people pull together and friends and neighbors band together and help each other it generally is little more than a slight inconvenience.

                  #72.2 - Fri Aug 31, 2012 12:09 AM EDT
                  Reply

                  Why do some people stay behind?

                  a) moving away from one's belongings is a profound inconvenience

                  b) People love their houses-- their houses are physical manifestations of their history. Having your home destroyed is a horrible, traumatic thing to happen. People's instincts are to defend their homes, not to abandon them.

                  • 2 votes
                  Reply#73 - Thu Aug 30, 2012 4:32 PM EDT

                  When did "middle class" and "working class" become mutually exclusive?

                  • 1 vote
                  Reply#74 - Thu Aug 30, 2012 4:35 PM EDT

                  I remember my hero from the last huge hurricane. Stealing a school bus and driving the poor out of New Orleans. I seen the films of thousand of school buses not being used during this critical time.

                  It's like they have idiots drawing up evacuate plans. Having just the Media announce evacuate, is not the only tool that is needed on taking care of your citizens.

                  They should of learned a lot from my hero on evacuate the people. These bow-tie politicians don't have the brains to make a true evacuate plan.

                  • 1 vote
                  Reply#75 - Thu Aug 30, 2012 4:43 PM EDT

                  i have no idea why the aging population was not considered a primary factor. i have assisted so many that are highly resistant to change of any kind. i even told one young family member, u cannot reason with habit, especially a lifetime of it. (just try to reason with an alcoholic, drug or sex addict, gamer, hoarder, the medically or mentally sick...or even some pet owners, etc. that cannot manage the anxiety even when minor or temporary change is involved).

                  • 1 vote
                  Reply#76 - Thu Aug 30, 2012 4:48 PM EDT

                  Interesting how few comments are posted by people who live in the area affected by Isaac. That's because we are cleaning our own yards, streets and highways; checking on our friends and neighbors and sharing the food and water we have with each other (that we bought with our own money earned at our own jobs) and then occassionally taking a break to read some of the trash posted about us on the internet. Stereotyping is one of the most uneducated viewpoints that exist. And that is what I see in most of the posts I read here. Yes, there are people who do not have the means to leave when an evacuation order is issued. They also did not "decide" to move to south Louisiana. They were likely born here, have never been anywhere else, and never made a conscious decision to stay here. Poverty on this level exists in all areas of our country. Also, just because someone has a pet does not mean they have transportation. It is quite likely they walk to their local grocery (can you believe in America people actually walk somewhere instead of drive?) or it may be the pet lives on table scraps. The federal government has never rebuilt anything of mine. Two blue tarps and two boxes of MREs are the only things I think we have ever been given. Our church and our neighbors have been the one to help when we were in need.

                  Well enough said. Now back to work while there is still daylight.

                    Reply#77 - Thu Aug 30, 2012 5:06 PM EDT

                    If they choose to stay and take the risk.....fine! Problem with most of them is that they whine, snivel and blame Bush when things go bad.!

                    • 2 votes
                    Reply#78 - Thu Aug 30, 2012 5:18 PM EDT

                    There are going to be people who choose not to take responsibility for their lives regardless of the circumstances. Those are the ones who showed up at the Superdome with no food, water, clothing, bedding, or anything else even though they were told, as was my sister who sat Katrina out in her home, that they needed to bring everything.....food,water, bedding, medications, clothing....EVERYTHING that anyone in their group would need for at least a week. No supplies are stored there because if they store them, someone breaks in and steals them, and this is no secret. People CHOSE to come unprepared, and they would have done so regardless of where they were or what the disaster was.

                      #78.1 - Fri Aug 31, 2012 12:19 AM EDT
                      Reply

                      Water is esential for sustaining life. Cities have always been and will continue to be located near water. NOLA exists BECAUSE of the Mississippi River and proximity to the Gulf of Mexico, that provides the entire country with access to bulk transportation of raw materials that are produced and originate through out the UNITED STATES, transported down the Mississippi to NOLA and are transported around the WORLD!

                      HELL O!?

                      The psychology piece misses aspects of the "inherent?" danger citizens of Southeast Louisiana face daily earning a living on or near water. Fishing/seafood industry, Port of NO, drilling for a highly COMBUSTIBLE substance like OIL, on a DRILLING RIG IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO which is a dangerous enterprise for those who work the oil riggs EVERY DAY even under ideal weather conditions. Commute to an oil rig is typically via a hellicopter.

                      I'm curious how much of the psychology of good, decent people who engage in high risk way of life=earn a living and provide valuable services to this nation each and every day, has been evaluated in this study or considered in general in the discussions on the message boards.

                      • 1 vote
                      Reply#79 - Thu Aug 30, 2012 5:33 PM EDT
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